From: Michael Wiik (mwiik@messagenet.com)
Date: Fri May 16 2003 - 07:09:32 MDT
dehede011@aol.com writes:
> I think the very way you are posing the question tips the playing
> field to favor your position. I wouldn't accept your construction as being
> fair to the American people, the government or to practically anyone else I
> can think of.
That's quite correct. It is unfair. On the one hand, we have the
if-I-were-king mode as a legitimate and fruitful discussion style on
this list. This is where we can discuss things like 'I think I can prove
the many-worlds interpretation of QM is correct, via torturing children
for millenia. Here's how...'. In this mode I can agree with many of the
reasons for attacking Iraq.
But, discussions of torturing children for millenia (yes, there's been a
few) are considered mind experiments. We all know, (except maybe the
psychopaths), that the experiment won't be done in the real world.
Attacking Iraq is/was a different story. It actually happened. The U.S.
launched an aggressive war that was not necessary. The consequences of
that may well affect our entire lives. (a friend (call him R) wrote me
about the possible financial consequences, having obtained his
permission, I'll quote some of it here: )
<<The dollar is in the second day of a free fall against the euro, yen
and canadian loonie. Our money is worth something like 5% less than it
was sunday - in other countries that is.
Gold did spike today - up almost $5. People outside the US with a lot of
money are retreating from using the dollar as their holding currency in
earnest. Look for the plunge to accelerate, as the currency markets are
trend driven and tend to over-adjust.
This is it. The big one. It should drive the derivatives market into
whatever it does when it collapses, and also make the trade deficit and
national deficit unserviceable. They are taking us down. The world is
taking us down - even though they will by and large sink with us. That
is how bad we scared the world with our preemptive empire building. They
are willing to deal with the consequences of global financial collapse
before they are willing to be part of the American empire.>>
Another friend (S) recently sent a few thousand dollars to her family in
Brazil. In the space of a few days the value of this, when converted to
Brazillian currency, plummeted. I dunno the exact amount, S claims they
lost about a third.
A followup R quote:
<<Better charts are available on http://quote.fxtrek.com/misc/fxcm2.asp
Looking at the ten year chart, you will see that the dollar hit a
five-year low against the Canadian loonie today. Considering that the
dollar hit an all time high against the loonie only a couple of months
ago, the chart looks a lot like a free-fall. Five years gains wiped out
in less than two months.
symbol USD/CAN - Daily ticks/10 year span
USD/EUR is at a four-year low. It has gone from 84 cents per Euro to
1.12 per Euro in fourteen months. About a 28% drop.
Not that this is all bad since American labor and products are quickly
becoming more affordable around the world.
But the short of it is - and I'll say it here first - We are now living
in an EX-only-superpower. It is done, but will take years to sink in.
America. Armed to the teeth, piss broke.>>
Note that I don't necessarily agree with R, nor do I follow currency
exchange rates. I suspect R may be biased in favor of gloom-and-doom
scenarios, yet I do have respect for his study in this area.
-Mike
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