Re: my objection to the Doomsday argument

From: Samantha Atkins (samantha@objectent.com)
Date: Tue Apr 29 2003 - 09:47:24 MDT

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    Lee Daniel Crocker wrote:
    >>(Samantha Atkins <samantha@objectent.com>):
    >>
    >>The argument is utterly flawed. There is no such thing as a
    >>human picked at random from all those that will ever be in all
    >>time when the choosing is done *at a particular point in time*.
    >> At that particular point by definition one can only pick a
    >>human alive at that time. Therefore talking about the
    >>probability of what time the supposed random sample came from
    >>relative to what cannot be sampled at all (the complete set of
    >>all past, present, future humans) is bogus.
    >
    >
    > It's a lot more subtle than that: There's nothing at all wrong
    > with picking a sample from items spread out in time, even into
    > the future. For example, one can certainly reason meaningfully about
    > a random sample of best actor oscar winners from 1950 to 2050.

    Not in the matter of the DA one can't.

    > Even random samples from infinite sets can be defined in
    > mathematically useful ways. The problem is (1) picking from an
    > presumably bounded, but unspecified, range (from big bang to some
    > unspecified point in the future), and (2) using that as a premise
    > for arguing about what that future bound is.
    >

    Exactly.



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