From: Technotranscendence (neptune@mars.superlink.net)
Date: Sun Apr 27 2003 - 20:44:53 MDT
On Sunday, April 27, 2003 7:55 PM Mike Lorrey mlorrey@yahoo.com wrote:
> I tend to wonder at safety records posted by governments
> that control the media. While the LM rocket has certainly
> improved in the last several years, it is mostly because of
> the fruits of spying on the US, and not because of actual
> chinese innovation.
Well, it seems they've also had a lot of help from Russia too.
> Is the LM as safe as, say, the Ariane? If not, the fact that
> the europeans don't see their own launcher as safe
> enough for human flight indicates that there are different
> standards being used.
Ariane 4 seems fairly reliable for an ELV. Ariane 5 is another story.
Guess what? Ariane 4 is no more and they're only launching 5s now,
IIRC.
Now, I don't doubt the Chinese aren't using different standards than the
ESA. Also, the ESA seems to NOT be in the business at all of manned
launches and, IIRC, has no plans for them. China wants desparately to
be in that business.
Also, unlike, say, the Soviet and US programs at a similar stage, China
can benefit now from the knowledge already gained and pretty much made
public. Circa 1961, no one knew about almost all the aspects of manned
spaceflight. 42 years later, there's a lot more knowledge -- including
just the trivial knowledge that it can be done.
>> Since at this point the Chinese manned space program
>> is all about national pride and international prestige, it
>> seems to me that CNSA has as much incentive to be
>> safe as NASA does.
>
> Or the Soviet Union? I seem to recall that there was at
> least one manned Soviet mission that never made the
> papers specifically because it was fatal. I have also
> heard rumors that the Chinese already had a manned
> flight that turned out similarly.
The problem is today's context. If the Chinese publicize the launch --
which they seem to want to do -- then it will be monitored. Even if
not, this is not 1961. There are plenty of information sources on what
the Chinese are up to once they launch.
I'm not saying this will keep them honest or that their intentions are
noble, but they don't have the kind of lid the Soviets had during the
1960s on their space program.
Later!
Dan
http://uweb.superlink.net/neptune/
"Some works have a wholeness, and are endowed with a precise and
original literary image; characters are drawn in unfathomable depths;
the composition has an extraordinary capacity for enchantment, and the
book is indivisible; through the pages comes the astonishing, unique
personality of the author: books like that are masterpieces, and only
someone who is actually indifferent both to fine prose and to the cinema
can conceive the urge to screen them." -- Andrei Tarkovsky
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