From: Hal Finney (hal@finney.org)
Date: Thu Apr 24 2003 - 00:00:53 MDT
Emlyn writes:
> For example, I happen to be born as a white westerner in the 20th century,
> with all the attendant privelage. Am I to conclude that the average
> situation of all people is mine; most people live a life, and find
> themselves in circumstances, similar to mine? I would be wrong; my
> situation, the accident of my birth, is rather unusual and uncommon; it
> seems improbable.
And yet, if everyone reasoned that way, most people would be right.
Most of them would say, I was born as a poor Chinese or Indian peasant.
And indeed, that is the most common circumstance for a human being today.
Just because a statistical argument doesn't work in every case is no
reason to reject it. If you flip 100 coins, you expect about 50 heads.
That is a valid argument even though some people will see many more
or fewer.
In the same way, assuming that one is a relatively typical human being
will be correct for the majority of human beings, who are by definition
relatively typical. You personally are an exception; you are like the
person who flips coins and gets 100 out of 100 heads. I won't claim
that the exception proves the rule, but at least it fails to invalidate
it.
Hal
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