Re: GOV: US Reputation (RE: Arab World Stunned by Baghdad's Fall)

From: Lee Daniel Crocker (lee@piclab.com)
Date: Thu Apr 17 2003 - 10:40:51 MDT

  • Next message: gts: "RE: FITNESS: Diet and Exercise"

    > (Samantha Atkins <samantha@objectent.com>):
    >
    > It is not "being perceived as a nice guy" it is being a
    > reasonable well-adjusted human being rather than a paranoid that
    > believes it justifiable to kill any who might conceivably be a
    > threat. It is roughly the difference between civilization and
    > the jungle. Also, I do not believe for a minute that we can
    > hold such preemptive use of deadly force attitudes and survive
    > even the level of technology we already have much less what is
    > on the way.

    That's actually a very important point: the level of technology
    does make a lot of difference. Years ago, when technology and
    the world economy was such that the only actors capable of doing
    major damage to a country as a whole were other countries, and
    the very first attack was unlikely to be decisive, it made sense
    to think of defense in terms of countries, and to have a policy
    of not attacking until attacked first.

    At today's level of technology, we're on the edge: clearly now
    small non-nation groups can cause serious damage and have done
    so, so the age of "countries" is past. But it's probably still
    the case that a first strike won't be devastating, so we're
    probably still not justified in attacking someone like Hussein
    who is unlikely to directly cause us great harm, and doesn't
    really have the means to even if he wanted to. But imagine
    moving just a little bit into a very likely future, where a
    weapon technology exists that would make it possible for a
    single person or small group to create and deploy a weapon that
    would cause major damage to an entire country without warning.
    If a person existed that were clearly mentally ill, had a
    history of violence, had the means to deploy such a weapon, and
    a clearly expressed irrational hatred for a certain people, I
    would hardly blame those people for eliminating that clear
    danger to their very existence at a lower level of threat--
    say, proof that he had negotiated to buy materials for that
    weapon--rather than waiting for a devastating loss.

    An actionable threat requires all three of means, credible
    intent, and immediacy. Clearly it can't be justified to react
    to a threat that doesn't have the means to destroy you, or that
    hasn't clearly expressed intent to, or that hasn't done
    something to make you reasonably fear for your existence /now/,
    when the decision has to be made. But if all three of those
    are indeed present, I would consider standing idle not to be
    civilized restraint, but suicidal foolishness.

    -- 
    Lee Daniel Crocker <lee@piclab.com> <http://www.piclab.com/lee/>
    "All inventions or works of authorship original to me, herein and past,
    are placed irrevocably in the public domain, and may be used or modified
    for any purpose, without permission, attribution, or notification."--LDC
    


    This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Thu Apr 17 2003 - 10:47:53 MDT