From: Mike Lorrey (mlorrey@yahoo.com)
Date: Mon Apr 14 2003 - 11:28:37 MDT
--- Steve Davies <steve365@btinternet.com> wrote:
> Mike Lorrey said (a propos the 12th century flood in the Low
> Countries)
>
> >Then any warming would not be a problem. The second half of the 20th
> >century had half as many severe hurricanes/cyclones worldwide as the
> >first half of the 20th. Since those claiming the sky is fallingclaim
> >the most warming occured in the second half of the 20th,it indicates
> > that warming reduces severe storms.
> >
> >This is quite logical since the warming does not occur at the
> >equator, but at the poles. The reduced temperature differential
> >between equator and polar regions will naturally result in less
> > severe storms.
>
> It is interesting that severe tropical storms have become less
> frequent over
> the last sixty years (of course they now cause greater damage in
> monetary
> terms). I don't know enough about meteorology to be sure about your
> explanation.
I've had an occasional chat with my climatologist cousin, who is a
doctoral student at the U of Aukland at the moment. His contention is
that a) the impact of CO2 is following a diminishing returns curve, and
b) that the North Atlantic Occillation has a far greater impact on
climate change in the relatively short periods that Global Warming
proponents claim to get their data from (and the NAO is currently
reversing, probably due to the reversing of the Solar Magnetic Field,
so we should have 20-30 years of cooler weather), as well as c) the
Malenkovic Cycles describe long term (i.e. more than a century) climate
changes such as the Little Ice Age extremely accurately, and these are
entirely based on three types of changes in Earth's orbital dynamics
like precession, etc. and are not in any way anthropic in origin.
>
> Mike adds
>
> The Dutch should be more worried if we have another Little Ice Age
> > (especially since the date you cite was at the beginning of that
> Age).
>
> We should *all* be more worried by the prospect of global cooling,
> given the planetary climate's default setting. The date of the
> great storm however was
> at the height of the warm spell as the "Little Ice Age" didn't get
> going until the early 14th century.
This isn't accurate. The time of the great storm was at the same time
frame as the inundation of the Viking colonies in West Greenland by ice
and cold.
=====
Mike Lorrey
"Live Free or Die, Death is not the Worst of Evils."
- Gen. John Stark
"Pacifists are Objectively Pro-Fascist." - George Orwell
"Treason doth never Prosper. What is the Reason?
For if it Prosper, none Dare call it Treason..." - Ovid
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