From: Lee Corbin (lcorbin@tsoft.com)
Date: Sun Apr 13 2003 - 12:55:49 MDT
Karen writes
> [Lee wrote]
> > Karen writes
> > > I want also to point out that the Shiite
> > > cleric Khoei who was murdered by Iraqi's,
> > > and whom the USA backed (according to the
> > > news), was not a friend to the USA. The
> > > USA has a history of supporting and
> > > empowering new leadership (e.g. Qadhdhafi
> > > of Libya) over their predecessors and having
> > > these new leaders turn out to be very poor
> > > choices.
Here, you evidently mean, in context, that they
turn out not to be friends of the U.S. The
decision about Libra's Qadhdhafi had to have
been made during the cold war; therefore it
becomes interesting to ponder why he turned
against his benefactor. This (if I'm correct
so far) could imply that there exists genuine
and strong anti-U.S. elements of the population,
one of whose main motives is to be simply anti-
U.S. An excellent book I'm reading, "World on
Fire", describes the unfortunate aspects of
globalization on most countries around the world,
and goes into detail about this kind of thing.
> > > I am afraid that the USA is going to make
> > > such a mistake again in Iraq. The USA
> > > support of Khoei is fueling my fears.
> >
> > What would be the attributes of a "good"
> > choice, and why do you think that it's
> > possible for any choice to create a
> > situation in Iraq that would meet with
> > our hopes?
>
> ^^^^Attributes of a "good" choice. Hm. Very
> hard question. Very hard. It is hard for me
> to imagine.
Well, then, this certainly weakens your criticism
of the Rumsfeld choice (I've forgotten his name,
and don't really know anything about the situation).
> Let me ask first what you mean by a good choice.
> For example, what I would consider a good choice
> for Iraq would most definitely not be what most
> Iraqi's would consider a good choice for Iraq.
Probably. One of the points in the aforementioned
book I'm reading is that democracy and free markets
don't mix very well outside the already developed
countries. In most Arab countries, for example,
the most rigid fundamentalists would win any general
election, and this, in the long run, (we here all
think), would not be beneficial to the people of
the country.
> I can't think of a leadership/government in Iraq
> which I believe could bridge all the conflicting
> religious and cultural attitudes currently
> troubling the region. Perhaps someone else can
> think of one; can you? I am not an Iraq hobby-ist,
> and I am a bit of a pessimist when it comes to the
> middle east.
Yes, me too. It may be a horrible choice between
chaos and a ruthless dictator. If the latter, then
the most we may be able to ask for is that he rules
in such a way as to put his country on the best
possible road towards modernization. In other words,
we might have to find a Shah-of-Iran clone. The
people endure his oppression for a generation or
so, but he yields (perhaps at our behest) gradually
over time to liberalization. I think that this is
what happened to Pinochet, who finally lost an
election.
> Again, I am not a student especially of Iraq.
> My area of special interest (in my earlier
> life) was mostly North Africa, specifically
> Libya.
Well, hasn't Libya shown some progress? I admit
that all I'm thinking of is that Qadhdhafi has
(internationally) seemed very reasonable lately.
He's denounced terrorism, and has taken
responsibility for the downed airliner over
Scotland, and has recompensated the survivors.
> Sorry to be so uninformative. What about you?
> Do you favor any groups there?
No, it's too complicated, and I haven't even spent
any time reading about the situation. I'd be
prejudiced in favor of Bush's or Rumsfeld's choice,
however, as it seems to me they have shown the
greatest understanding of the situation there.
The war has so far gone about the way they thought,
and right now it does look like the effect on the
Arab world will be salutary.
But it's too early to tell for sure, as hardly
needs to be said. Everyone must guess what policies
will really lead to long term progress. All I know
is that the United Nations-type policies are destined
to fail, because they use only carrots, and they and
their backers seem incapable of understanding the
role of sticks.
Lee
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