Re: IRAQ: Predictable catastrophes of human stupidity

From: Andrew Clough (aclough@mit.edu)
Date: Thu Apr 10 2003 - 22:22:14 MDT

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    First, I'd like to begin by agreeing with your assessment of Bush's
    diplomatic abilities. He doesn't seem to have done a very good job at all
    of getting international support/approval of this, and I think that many
    presidents could have done better. I'm sure that there we will miss scores
    of opportunities to gain the approval of the Iraqis and help them towards
    an ideal democracy. Our mismanagement might result in starvation. Our
    soldiers might be prejudiced against Arabs. Our leader's speeches might
    slander the efforts that the Iraqis make in bringing themselves towards
    democracy. In short, we might do just as bad a job of occupying Iraq as we
    did of occupying Japan after WWII.

    As you might guess though, this doesn't mean I think that everything will
    turn out badly. I don't trust Bush to do a good job either, but I do trust
    most Iraqis to be sick of wars and dictators, and they are the ones who are
    really going to have to put their country back together.

    For more information on post-war Japan, I'd recomend reading "Embracing
    Defeat" by John W. Dower.

    http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0393320278/qid=1050034832/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_1/103-5763469-6375064?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

    At 10:44 PM 4/10/2003 -0400, you wrote:
    >Things go wrong easily enough even without human stupidity. I don't trust
    >Bush to do anything right. Taking Bush into account, I see this whole
    >situation turning bad. It doesn't matter how awful Saddam was, how good
    >the US is, etc.; a positive outcome for a war requires more intelligent
    >process control than we can rely on from this administration.
    >
    >--
    >Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/
    >Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

    Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity. Don't assign
    to stupidity what might be due to ignorance. And try not to assume you
    opponent is the ignorant one-until you can show it isn't you.
    -M.N. Plano



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