CURRENT EVENTS: Fwd: Or perhaps it's the Social Breakdown Scenario...

From: Michael M. Butler (mmb@spies.com)
Date: Sat Mar 15 2003 - 13:39:20 MST

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    Yes, it ain't a very extropian view in the rah-rah sense. But it's a
    concise depiction of a consequence of loss of comity that I have found
    plausible as one
    path for quite some time (ever since reading _Engines of Creation_, in
    fact). Especially the tension between crank actors and sitting ducks.
    Everyone's a target now, potentially; and this has been so to some degree
    since the 1970s,
    even before the emergence of a "sole superpower".

    Sucks, rather.

    > Social Breakdown Scenario
    >
    > http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf/b3/scenarios/ggroup/sc_ba-bd.html
    >
    > Scenario Outcome
    >
    > Technological Growth Global Environmental Impact Local
    > Environment Impact Conflict
    > low low high
    > high
    >
    >
    > In this scenario, the degree of conflict and rivalry between the
    > different
    > international actors has become so high that no long-term concerted
    > actions
    > are possible. Chaos rather than coherence becomes the order of the day.
    >
    > The high incidence of random violence (from disaffected individuals, from
    > organized terrorist groups, or from economic conflicts such as wars
    > between
    > drug dealers or corporations) diverts resources from economic growth to
    > security concerns, both on a personal and a national level. Despite these
    > efforts, the breakdown of civil order and ensuing chaos becomes
    > widespread,
    > especially where significant portions of the population are highly
    > stressed
    > and governments are weak and fragile. The refugees fleeing from one
    > disaster
    > help to destabilize their neighbors.
    >
    > Reaction to migrants in both rich countries and rich regions of poor
    > countries becomes a dominating political concern, focusing resources on
    > police powers, border fences and guards, monitoring of the movements and
    > activities of citizens, and ultimately limiting or obstructing trade and
    > travel. Globalization largely collapses, except for the media that bring
    > everyone fresh news of disaster and conflict. Such changes are
    > particularly devastating for industrial economies highly dependent on
    > trade and on
    > imported natural resources. The result is rising unemployment,
    > depressions,
    > political instability, and outbreaks of civil disorder even in rich
    > countries.
    >
    > This chain of events eventually leads to a generalized collapse of
    > social,
    > cultural, and political institutions, deindustrialization (to varying
    > degrees in different regions), and in large parts of the world a return
    > to
    > semi-tribal or feudal societal structures. With the collapse of markets
    > and
    > of investment generally, technological progress halts too--and the level
    > of
    > technological capability regresses. Famines and epidemics become common.
    > Equity increases somewhat only because everybody gets poorer.
    >
    > Population size is a critical uncertainty. It could keep growing in poor
    > regions for some time, in a vicious circle of poverty and high birth
    > rates.
    > Eventually, however, it decreases, both from higher mortality rates and
    > from
    > the drastic reduction/degradation of the natural resource base available
    > to
    > support the world's population. Many couples, pessimistic about the
    > future,
    > choose not to bring children into the world.
    >
    > The conditions of this Breakdown scenario could persist for many decades
    > before social evolution to higher levels of civilization again becomes
    > possible.



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