From: Joao Magalhaes (joao.magalhaes@fundp.ac.be)
Date: Sat Mar 01 2003 - 02:45:41 MST
Dear all,
I've been wondering on why are transhumanists so confident that we will
reach the singularity. I'm about to finish my Ph.D. on the biology of aging
and I've been thinking about the developments of the past few years, not
just on aging but in other areas too. In truth, I'm disappointed with
what's being done and I want to know why are transhumanists so confident we
will reach the singularity. For instance, astrophysics and space
exploration have been stagnating. It's been 30 years since a man walked on
the moon and, though I'm not an expert, I don't see how our recent models
of the universe--e.g. superstring theory--are more likely to be right than
the models from Einstein's time. It's true breakthroughs have been made in
biology and medicine, such as the Human Genome Project, but, shit, we
haven't even cured AIDS, how can we expect to cure aging anytime soon?
Also, I'm disappointed with the way science is made in the academia with
personal egos rising above finding the mechanisms of aging. If we want to
cure aging, we need to work together, but not many do that.
In the end, I would say that the basis for the singularity is Moore's law,
for it allows not only faster computers but also developments in DNA
sequencing and a host of other possibilities. Yet I'm sure there are
physical limits for Moore's law. When will we reach them? Can you be sure
Moore's law will continue for long enough to develop a smarter-than-man
artificial intelligence?
When I found transhumanism, already several years ago, I thought it set an
optimistic but plausible scenario. Now, I'm starting to wonder if we're not
just another cult willing to sacrifice reality towards a fairer image of
the world. Please prove me wrong. Or does anyone here thinks we're
descendant from aliens?
All the best.
Joao Magalhaes (joao.magalhaes@fundp.ac.be)
Website on Aging: http://www.senescence.info
Reason's Triumph: http://www.jpreason.com
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