From: Lee Corbin (lcorbin@tsoft.com)
Date: Tue Feb 18 2003 - 02:00:13 MST
Dennis May writes (via Dan) --- and sorry that I overlooked
this post until now:
> Lee Corbin lcorbin@tsoft.com wrote:
>
> > If there are other civilizations in the visible
> > universe, then they'll have their own wave front
> > expanding at the speed of light, and yes, there
> > will be a collision. But there will be no advance
> > notice of the meeting. Moreover, the wave front
> > itself will be at the stage of technological
> > development that characterized the beginning
> > stages of expansion, not the stage meanwhile
> > reached at the centers.
>
> >So the collision will be on approximately equal terms.
>
> There are several assumptions [variables] inherent
> in your model which can turn out very differently.
> Colonizing new land does not expand uniformly in
> all directions.
For the reasons you give below, you may have a good
point here.
> It generally follows the path of least
> resistance to the greatest riches in the
> shortest time frame.
Yes, I have been supposing that the nano-
technological flowering consumes all matter
within reach. And, whereas Feynman had
said, "There is plenty of room at the bottom",
nanotech probably is on the bottom.
> I see no good reason to assume that the most
> advanced technology will be found near the
> center of the expansion sphere. Did all
> modern technology arise out of Africa or
> did a great deal of it happen in the United
> States while it was still being settled?
I appreciate your historical examples without
quite admiring them. No limit to technological
ascent has been foreseen all the way up to pure
computronium, matter reduced to its most complex
state able to compute.
> >Given nanotech, how is stealth possible?
>
> Your nanotech will be fighting, evading,
> and hiding from other nanotech [both your
> own, competing groups within your own
> expansion sphere, and alien] much like
> ants battling for supremacy. Nanotech
> will have to remain stealth or be destroyed.
> Corrupted or obsolete nanotech will have to
> be hunted by other nanotech or its presence
> will betray you militarily. If you cannot
> control your nanotech it becomes a liability.
> Stealth is not about remaining invisible
> under all circumstances, it is about
> minimizing your exposure and making the
> enemy expend great resources if he wishes
> to find you. His expenditure of great
> resources exposes him.
That is all true. And even if supremacy is
reached---much as Western civilization is
obtaining supremacy on Earth (the other
civilizations convert or die), then your
remarks apply well to VR (virtual reality),
in which programs fight as you have described.
However, all this is besides the point of
there being *currently* within 10^4 light
years any technology that would not be
bearing down on us at the speed of light,
rapacious for every bit of matter and
energy.
> > Why wouldn't my local civilization
> > expand to use every single last
> > asteroid in the neighborhood?
> > Certainly, no solar system will
> > escape notice. The growth of
> > the singularity will be geometric,
> > both locally and globally.
>
> Even bacteria only expand geometrically under
> ideal circumstances and only for a finite
> amount of time due to finite resources.
> Introduce a single pathogen and all bets are
> off.
Bacteria is on the other side of the Von Neumann
complexity barrier: bacteria cannot live except
in special, customized environments. Humans will
soon be vastly more adaptable than they, and the
AIs that replace us will control matter supremely.
> Introduce multiple pathogens or
> competitors and you develop an ecology.
Yes.
> With an endless Cold War of WoMD in space
> you will be more concerned about avoiding
> destruction than mining every last piece
> of usable rock. There is plenty of good
> rock to graze on as you live the nomadic
> life. A missing rock here or there will
> not raise red alerts like whole asteroids
> mined and built into thousand mile long
> space stations.
But you speak of this concern "we will be
more concerned about avoiding destruction..."
as if it were a conserved quantity. Yes,
until now, it has been. But when programs
fully inhabit matter, the war will be among
algorithms only, and there will be a "Wind
from Earth" with more advanced ones constantly
trying to supplant or incorporate less
advanced ones. There will be no room for
truly antiquated life to hide in.
> Think militarily, I'm sure others have and
> will.
Correct.
> I see interlacing civilizations of nomads,
> not colliding brick walls. Sort of like
> different species of bees forming dispersed
> swarms. One swarm can pass right through
> another without conflict.
At some early stages of the Von Neumann probe
dispersal, this seems right. But then as one
civilization begins using all available matter
ruthlessly grasping for every cycle of compute
power, this passes, I'd say.
Lee Corbin
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