From: avatar (avatar@renegadeclothing.com.au)
Date: Mon Feb 10 2003 - 18:19:31 MST
> From: avatar [mailto:avatar@renegadeclothing.com.au]
> > Everything indicates a FASI or other SI will discover most of
> > the physics of the this-universe underlying-TOE in 2 decades,
> > possibly with final refinements in the decades following,
> > depending on the Fermi Paradox.
>
> Really? I'm skeptical. What evidence do you have to support this
> assertion?
>
> cheers,
> mez
There's not much point debating too much, there are those who will
upload (it's possible) and there's those who will augment (it's possible).
Some just believe continuity is important, some don't. Atomic/molecular
level software duplication is something that hasn't happened before with
sentient beings. Augmentation has only been of the very lowest order
(surgigal procedures).
Similarly with the Singularity. As an historian by training, I recognize the
Singularity in action. At a timeframe of 100,000 years it is unmistakeable.
I base my believes on Drexler's assertion that engineering and software
programming nano-supercomputing will be available about the time that
assemblers are or before [eliminating software drag]. Also, I believe that
an AI will be inherently more likely to achieve self-directed change because
of its structure and the fact that this process will be inbuilt into it by humans.
Augmented human SI is also possible but slower to be achieved.
A FASI will be more likely to achieve a TOE-physics (underlying structure of
this unvierse) because it can assimilate information faster and from more sources
and cross-relate thought experiments.
But if you believe that the various effects linked to Moore's law and population
growth and AI development and assembler tech and bush robot possiblities and
so on are all going to happen in 50 years or 80, does this really make any
practical difference beyond preparing people? These things (TOE etc.) can be
taken as fixed and culture will still rumble forward. People are people whether
they can talk to a million colleagues or ten or one. The only thing that superintelligence
should bring is greater awareness of our common brotherhood.
Interim longevity boosting/appearance enhancement will be possible in a dozen years,
certainly sufficient to last us to the Singularity.
Note: I myself believe the Singularity is not full achieved locally until about 2350, but
that it's bulk occurs in just over 2 decades from now. That is, knowledge precedes full
activation. This delay may also be due to ethical concerns and individual rights.
Avatar
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Tue Feb 11 2003 - 01:20:32 MST