Re: Doomsday argument & Shooting Room

Eliezer Yudkowsky (
Sat, 14 Dec 1996 17:58:34 -0600

> The Shooting Room: Eliezer wrote that the chances of winning
> in Robin's variation of the Shooting Room (where it is not
> known whether an even would win or it would require a double
> 6) were ((1/6) + 1/36) / 2)=7/72. I think that Robin's idea
> was that in a given situation, if I find myself in a room
> with very many of people, then that would indicate that it
> was difficult to win (i.e. that it would require a doubble
> six), since otherwise the experiment would probably have
> terminated before that many people got into the room. This
> would make 7/72 a bad estimate.

Ah! I missed that part of the experimental condition. Yes, in that
case the more people the likelier it is that you're operating on 1/36.

--       Eliezer S. Yudkowsky

Disclaimer:  Unless otherwise specified, I'm not telling you
everything I think I know.