Re: Shooting room paradox (addendum)
Hal Finney (hal@rain.org)
Fri, 6 Dec 1996 09:31:14 -0800
From: kwatson@netcom.com (Kennita Watson)
> No you don't. What you expect is a 1/36 chance of being in a 90% majority
> (out of a group of size X) that sees the dice come up sixes, and a 35/36
> chance of being in a 10% minority (out of a group of _at least_ size 10X)
> that never sees sixes. The numbers are approximate, but I hope they get
> the idea across.
I'm not sure this makes sense. It seems to me that speaking of a 90%
majority already implies a probability.
If I collect some people at random, and show 90% of them a red ball,
while I show 10% of them a green ball, wouldn't you agree that if you
are selected, your chances of seeing a red ball are 90%? Why is it
different if I show 90% of the people I select a double-six dice roll,
while I show 10% a different value?
Hal