Re: Stopping the Singularity

Anders Sandberg (
Wed, 9 Oct 1996 17:45:24 +0200 (MET DST)

On Tue, 8 Oct 1996, Robin Hanson wrote:

> Anders Sandberg writes:
> >I don't know. When we discussed this, one participant said it was the in
> >his opinion most realistic scenario, while the present economist said he
> >found it less likely than the other scenarios.
> I'm tempted to agree with this economist, but I haven't heard the
> other scenarios.

This scenario was the "different" scenario, since it was based on a single
powerful event rather than the other four that evolved (relatively)
smoothly. Normally, in scenario planning you don't try to estimate
probabilities for the scenarios, since they are intended more as good
learning tools or cautionary tales. Instead one should look for signs that
draw us in the direction of some scenarios rather than others.

I do not claim to be able to estimate its probability, and I doubt it is
possible in practice - often our assumptions are very wrong. I think we
should see it for what it is: a warning about a possible dark future,
urging us to think about ways of averting it and if the worst happens
survive it with our dreams intact.

Anders Sandberg Towards Ascension!
GCS/M/S/O d++ -p+ c++++ !l u+ e++ m++ s+/+ n--- h+/* f+ g+ w++ t+ r+ !y