Robin Hanson wrote:
> I read a review of this book in the Economist, and
> the reviews on Amazon.com:
> The River : A Journey to the Source of HIV and AIDS
> by Edward Hooper, Bill Hamilton
> "is thesis, that HIV made the jump from simians to humans
> via the administration of oral polio vaccine in Africa in
> the 1950s, is still controversial, but his arguments are
> powerful, broad, and undeniable--all that is lacking is
> conclusive proof." -- Amazon blurb
> I am amazed that things could go this badly. I
> wonder how many lives were saved by vaccines in Africa,
> to weight against the possible cost of inducing the
> AIDS epidemic. I don't think vaccines had any
> measurable influence on deaths in the US. See:
> John and Sonja McKinlay, "The Questionable Contribution
> of Medical Measures to the Decline of Mortality in
> the United States in the Twentieth Century"
> Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly/Health and Society,
> 55:405-428, 1977.
In the case of AIDS, I think it is even worse than you suggest. See http://www.mmsweb.com/eykiw/aids/aids.htm for some links to papers and articles to decide for yourself.