Re: Reproducing (was Re: are there smart drugs)

Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (
Sat, 16 Oct 1999 19:46:27 -0500

Lee Daniel Crocker wrote:
> > Planning ahead for more than, say, 50 years is probably a waste of
> > time. Planning ahead for more than a century is utterly absurd.
> > By that time we'll all be dead or ascended.
> Such statements are religious eschatology, not rational argument.
> I may not be surprized if such an event comes about, and I might
> even consider some part of it likely, but I don't think I or most
> people here consider it that inevitable in that short a term.

I disagree. It's entirely rational-argument to say that the probability of life as we know it continuing for fifty years is of such negligible order that it need not be entered into our calculations. I disagree, but solely because of the possibility that a nuclear war takes us back two hundred years; if I saw a way to influence the relative post-catastrophe rates of climb-back in AI and nanotechnology, I'd use it. Other than that, den Otter is essentially correct.

           Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
Running on BeOS           Typing in Dvorak          Programming with Patterns
Voting for Libertarians   Heading for Singularity   There Is A Better Way