RE: Challenge of Design Complexity

Robin Hanson (hanson@econ.berkeley.edu)
Tue, 15 Dec 1998 14:40:13 -0800

Billy Brown wrote:
>>> Recent history demonstrates ... you can create
>>> a situation in which the ability of your society to make technological
>>> advances increases faster than the difficulty of taking the next step.
>>> A reasonable extrapolation of the trend would predict a century or
>>> two of steadily-accelerating progress before things begin to change so
>>> fast that an unenhanced human can't cope..
>>
>> What is the "recent history" that shows a "trend" of
>> "steadily-accelerating progress"? No such acceleration shows up in
>> economic trends over the last half century.
>
>I meant technological progress, not economic growth. Since new inventions
>do not necessarily show up in economic data, even when they have a
>substantial effect on the human condition, concentrating exclusively on
>economic data could easily lead us to miss important facts.

OK, what is recent history of tech progresss that shows acceleration? Patent stats show deceleration, if anything.

Robin Hanson

hanson@econ.berkeley.edu     http://hanson.berkeley.edu/   
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