Re: The Spike, nanotech, and a future scenario
Dan Clemmensen (Dan@Clemmensen.ShireNet.com)
Sun, 05 Oct 1997 12:03:21 -0400
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
>
> Dan Clemmensen wrote:
> >
> > I'm in there quite a bit, mostly because I'm the most radical
> > "singularitan," having predicted in May of 1996 that the
> > singularity would occur within a decade.
>
> I dispute that. :) Going on our relative portions of the Spike, I think I
> actually came across as being more radical than you, probably since Damien
> believes youths _should_ come across as radical. Although I don't think
> there's much point in comparision; we both believe the Singularity could occur
> any time now - how 'ya doin', Zyvex? - and our relative speculations on What
> Happens Next ain't tremendously important next to Getting There.
>
> For the record, though, the >Web-to-S transition could take considerably less
> than two weeks if there are any protein synthesis machines on the Web.
> Likewise for STMs.
> --
Sorry, Eliezer. I knew you were also a radical singularitan, but I
didn't
recall that you were also in the "any day now" camp. I've lent my
copy of the book out and have not yet ordered another. I know that
the two of us arrived at our conclusions independently, and I was
very reassured when I found your work. It made me feel a bit less like
some kind of pseudo-religous nut. (Yes, I know feelings can be deceiving
:)
I find it very frustrating that the list spends so much time on
irrelevant issues of economics and politics. The current economic
and political environment will not change significantly prior to
the singularity: there's not enough time, even if the event occurs
in 2025.