At 12:41pm -0500 12/7/00, Michael S. Lorrey wrote:
>Having seen the evident bias in many of the forecasts in the Foresight
>Exchange, I'm beginning to conceive the idea that better methods of
>forecasting can be derived by researching and catalogueing prevalent
>memes influencing markets in the past. Creating a genealogy of the
>birth, parentage, lives, and deaths of various memes, as well as ratings
>of their influence on the economy, as well as current watchfulness for
>new memes bearing on the market should allow one to make better
>predictions about market trends as well as predict dramatic shifts. I'm
>expecting that a large amount of survey data histories would play
>significantly in these predictions. This could conceivably be used as a
>precursor to some sort of true psychohistorical science. Discuss...
Very interesting idea, Mike! I am currently considering a job as an
industry analyst. One of my primary functions would be not only to
comment on technology, but to predict the future of technology. I
likewise am concerned about the bias and downright poor accuracy of
most predictions. I have suddenly found myself interested in trying
to apply a more scientific method to predictions. Any discussion on
this topic would be of great interest to me!
-- Harvey Newstrom <HarveyNewstrom.com>
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b30 : Mon May 28 2001 - 09:50:34 MDT