On Tuesday, July 27, 1999 1:48 PM, paul@i2.to [SMTP:paul@i2.to] wrote:
> On Mon, 26 July 1999, Billy Brown wrote:
> > The galaxy is big, but it isn't infinite. A single expansionist
species
> > with sublight travel could easily colonize every single system in it in
> > less <10^6 years.
>
> I'm not sure I agree with this. The universe is in fact extremely large,
with our
> galaxy making up a very small part of it. It is possible that
space-faring
> intelligences are so rare that they only pop up in 1 out of 1000
galaxies.
> If they are that rare, and given the relatively young age of our
universe, this
> doesn't give them enough time to find us. Afterall, we are but a
> speck in a speck. And if inflationary theorists are right, then our
> observable universe might be as small as a 1/10^30th of the actual
> Universe. Now that's a speck within a speck within a speck if I have
> every heard one. :-)
That's why I said "the galaxy", not "the universe". Most people either expect millions of civilizations in this galaxy alone, or they expect life to be so rare that we are the only technological species within hundreds of millions of light years. The second case is quite plausible if you believe in light speed limits, but the first is nearly impossible to justify.
Billy Brown, MCSE+I
ewbrownv@mindspring.com