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Eliezer S. Yudkowsky <sentience@pobox.com> Wrote:
>Uploading becomes possible at 2040 CRNS. It becomes available
>to the average person at 2060 CRNS. Transhuman AI becomes
>possible at 2020 CRNS. Nanotechnology becomes possible at 2015 CRNS.
It seems a little early to me but let's assume you're right and Nanotechnology becomes possible in 2015 , uploading would be pretty straightforward after that, I don't think you'd have long to wait. I would consider a mind a billion times faster than mine with a billion times my memory capacity to be a Transhuman Intelligence, although not completely "Artificial". A true ARTIFICIAL intelligence might come before Nanotechnology (but not by much, the AI would see to that), or perhaps after, there is no way to tell which technology will win the race and start the singularity, either would do.
I also don't understand the 20 year gap between the time uploading becomes possible and the time it's available to the average person. We've already seen a smaller gap between supercomputers only huge government agencies could afford and machines of equal power that third graders get on their birthday. You haven't seen anything yet, In the Nanotechnology age almost any endeavor our puny non Transhuman brains can now consider of could be put into one of two categories, dirt cheap or impossible.
John K Clark jonkc@att.net
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