On Tue, 6 Jul 1999 05:48 PDT bradbury@aeiveos.com (Robert J. Bradbury)
writes:
Even with the competition, personal solar power
>will become an affordable reality probably sometime between
>2010-2020.
>That will gut the power-production industry.
>
>
Maybe, but I can think of reasons why that might not happen. Assuming even that solar cells became so cheap that they were effectively free, we would still have the expense of packaging and installing them. That's not trivial, as they have to be positioned to effectively catch the sunlight while at the same time being sufficiently protected from the weather and other hazards. Perhaps the cheapest way to install them is to apply them flush to the surface of an existing pitched roof, but most existing roofs are not ideally angled and oriented for that. Arranging for the angle to be adjustable, either occasionally with seasonal changes or adaptively during the day would be an additional expense. But perhaps 'solar shingles' will be developed which would allow a solar installation as part of original roof construction or re-roofing.
Then there is the problem of storing energy. Not all days are sunny, and even on sunny days the cells will produce useful output for only a few hours. The hardware to store, manage, and voltage-regulate the energy would be quite expensive, at least with today's technology. Maintenance of the hardware is an additional cost. My electric bill is about $40 per month, so it would be necessary for a system with a 10 year life span to cost less than about $5,000 installed for it to be even a marginally attractive investment.
Ron Kean
.
. . . . ___________________________________________________________________Get the Internet just the way you want it. Free software, free e-mail, and free Internet access for a month! Try Juno Web: http://dl.www.juno.com/dynoget/tagj.