Re: Human AI to superhuman (Re: Max More)

Peter C. McCluskey (
Mon, 14 Sep 1998 15:02:57 -0700 ("Eliezer S. Yudkowsky") writes:
>The history of AI seems to me to consist of a few big wins in a vast wasteland
>of useless failures. HEARSAY II, Marr's 2.5D vision, neural nets, Copycat,
>EURISKO. Sometimes you have a slow improvement in a particular field when the
>principles are right but there just isn't enough computing power - voice
>recognition, for example. Otherwise: Breakthroughs and bottlenecks.

Neural net research started in the 1940s. It's still pretty hard to prove that they have helped progress towards AI. Marr's vision ideas have certainly caused an important paradigm shift in researcher's thinking, but I haven't seen many signs that they had a sudden effect on the vision software that people used, or that they have had much influence on AI research.
The three programs you mention don't bear enough resemblence to big wins to be worth serious consideration.
If the singularity is generated by advances that behave like these, it will take a century or so for before the average person notices.

Peter McCluskey          | Critmail ( | Accept nothing less to archive your mailing list