Oops...math correction (re Doomsday)

Lee Daniel Crocker (lee@piclab.com)
Mon, 24 Aug 1998 17:01:15 -0700

In my earlier analysis of the Carter-Leslie Doomsday Argument, I incorrectly stated that the Bayesian posterior probability of a ball having been drawn from the first of N urns, given that it was numbered "1" and that the N urns contain 1, 2, ... N balls, approached 0 as N approaches infinity. That's not true: if my second shot at the calculations are correct, the limit is in fact 1/3. This shoots down one of my objections to the DA, namely that the sample set of potential universes is too contrived. It does not affect my objection to the self-selection flaw.

Lee Daniel Crocker <lee@piclab.com> <http://www.piclab.com>
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