I have been thinking about strong Super Intelligences. It seems to me that there might be a limit to how fast such an entity can grow.
I think that a SI is somewhat similar to a company, or at least that a corporation is the closest we can come to a SI right.
A company generally has two problems to solve to be succesfull. What to do and How to do it. I know this from myself, being an entrepeneur et all. The biggest problem for me is not to choose how to do things. It's choosing what to do.
I think that any SI will be limited mostly by this factor. How to do a thing is pretty straightfoward in most cases but choosing WHAT to do (that big bussines idea), so that you really stand out from the rest of the pack. That is hard!
My main thesis is that there is a probability cloud which makes it hard to see WHAT to do to succed. A lot of companies fails and lots of ideas are proven wrong when they're tried in the marketplace.
In chess there also is a probability cloud which you can count in moves that
you can see forward in the game. In real life because of the complexity of
the system this cloud is much more dense. It's harder to see many "moves"
into future in real life.
Increased intelligence probably won't help much with this problem as real life complexity is exponential to the "n'th" degree.
In my experience it is certainly not allways absolutely brilliant people that are the most wealthy. Rather it seems to be people who knows how to do one thing really well and furthermore are reasonably intelligent.
Max M Rasmussen
New Media Director Denmark