Re: Why Do We Die?

Chris Hibbert (hibbert@agorics.com)
Tue, 7 Jul 1998 09:34:50 -0700 (PDT)

There are some very surprising numbers here. I'll have to look at the study. As I read it, the entries in the table are 1 for a base rate, with lower numbers providing lower mortality and higher numbers higher. From the way Robin talked about it, the numbers are actually ratios of mortality rates, so 1 vs. 3 is a factor of three (with 3 being worse) in how often people die, and similarly .33 and 1 is a factor of three (with .33 being better). Presumably the numbers are not comparable across the tables.

Look at the numbers for Drinking and for weight! Heavy drinkers and overweight people have the lowest mortality! Underweight people and teatotallers have higher mortality. That's directly contradictory to all the reports we've been seeing which would lead us to believe that underweight might be better than "normal" (i.e. average?), which should be much better than overweight. Moderate drinking is supposed to be better than teatotalling, which is much better than heavy drinking. Can these numbers be right? Or am I misreading the whole table?

I believe the numbers in all the other tables, but I didn't realize being male was such a handicap.

Chris

Robin told us:
>> Here are the death rate ratio parameters from their model:
>>
>> Age 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
>> 1.0 2.66 3.46 9.30 16.78 40.00
>> Sex Male Female
>> 1.0 .41
>> Race NonBlack Black
>> 1.0 1.19
>> Residence Rural Suburban City
>> 1.0 1.16 1.52
>> Education 16+yrs 12-15 0 -11
>> 1.0 .95 .90
>> Income 30K$+ 10-29K$ <10K$
>> 1.0 2.14 2.77
>> Smoking Never current former
>> 1.0 1.26 1.28
>> Alcohol drinks/mo. Moderate None Heavy
>> 1.0 1.13 .85
>> Body Mass Normal Underweight Overweight
>> 1.0 2.03 .94
>> Physical Activity Quintiles
>> 5(high) 4 3 2 1(low)
>> 1.0 1.46 1.60 2.25 2.91