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At 02:42 PM 7/7/98 +1200, you wrote:
>
>
>>At what point does the study become meaningless from the addition
of
>>too many variables? What is your control group?
>
>You tell me, and we'll both know - I'm not a statistician.
>
>A number of years ago there was a study done in Germany (I think)
>which showed a positive correlation between the reduction in the
birth
>rate and the reduction in the crane population. Amazingly, almost
every
>peak and trough in the crane population was reflected in the birth
rate.
>
>So, do cranes deliver babies in Germany?
>
>Anecdotal connections between gun ownership and crime rates mean
>very little to me. I'm neither pro nor anti gun, though I'm for the
* right * to
>own a gun. With regard to the connection between crime rate and gun
>ownership, I'm sitting on the fence until someone with a big and
logically
>powerfull enough documented study knocks me off; and untill then I'm
>staying firmly put.
>
A big problem with sociological and group psychological studies is the impossiblity of ethically performing true scientific experiments with control groups.
The closest surrogate is the Florida concealed carry laws recently enacted. Only a very few of the permit holders have been found guilty of misusing their privelege, and the violent crime rates are falling.
The lowering crime rate coupled with the low percentage of misuse and 'accidental' shootings looks very much like success for the concept of arming the public. At the very least, no harm has been done by the law's passage.
Now if cities like Chicago would only try..
Chuck Kuecker
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Chuck Kuecker, President
C K Enterprises, Inc.
326 Deveron Circle
Cary, Il 60013
USA
(847) 639-2771
(847) 516-1410 FAX
ckuecker@mcs.net
www.mcs.net/~ckuecker/