Re: The End of Privacy ?

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Anders Sandberg [asa@nada.kth.se] wrote:
>There are many
>people out there who actually think extropians are gun-toting
>survivalists beliving in a technocalypse, and all this talk about
>creating heavily fortified island nations, surviving the Y2000 problem
>and escaping into space doesn't help that image.

And as others have pointed out, we are, or should be, the most serious survivalists on the planet. Most survivalists only want their "three score years and ten", we want immortality, or at least an indefinite lifespan. You don't get there by ignoring reality in order to protect your image.

The total cost to me of preparing for major disruption due to year-2000 bugs is about $40 in lost interest payments on the money I'm spending. Everything I'm buying is useful and I'd probably buy it anyway, sooner or later. So if nothing happens, I'm out $40.

On the other hand, I'm a programmer, so I know:

• Almost no company managers have a clue about their computer systems.
• Computer management have some clues but are considered a very low priority in most companies.
• Almost no software project finishes on time, and almost no major software project finishes within six months of the expected dates.
• Almost all IT managers lie about progress on software projects and higher-level managers lie even more. This is why most projects spend 90% of the time 90% complete.
• Many companies don't even have source code for many of their systems, and they cannot be fixed without it. Many companies who produced the systems for which they don't have source code no longer exist, and the source went with them.
• Many bugs cannot be eliminated without a full-scale test.
• We rely on noncompliant software in ways that most people don't even begin to understand.

So on that basis, there is at least a 90% probability of some major systems going down for weeks in the next couple of years, and a strong probability of very serious disruptions in all areas.

So as someone who wants to live a very long time I think: OK, strong probability of serious disruption, cost to avoid it $40. Hmm, not too hard, is it? If that makes me an evil unpatriotic survivalist, then so be it. Better a bad image than dead.

Mark

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