Message is undeliverable.
Reason: Unable to access cc:Mail Post office.
Please retry later.
Original text follows:
---------------------
--simple boundary
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ACSII
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Received: from maxwell.lucifer.com by smtpgate.netcon.co.za (ccMail Link to SMTP R6.0)
; Sat, 06 Sep 97 06:23:23 +0200
Return-Path: <postmaster@extropy.org>
Received: (from majordom@localhost) by maxwell.lucifer.com (8.7.5/8.7.3) id UAA15314 for extropians-outgoing; Fri, 5 Sep 1997 20:28:23 -0600
X-Authentication-Warning: maxwell.lucifer.com: majordom set sender to postmaster@extropy.org using -f
From: "Peter C. McCluskey" <pcm@rahul.net>
Date: Fri, 5 Sep 1997 19:28:09 -0700
Message-Id: <199709060228.AA19590@foxtrot.rahul.net>
To: extropians@extropy.org
Subject: Re: Goo prophylaxis:consensus
References: <199709031334.OAA06619@andromeda.ndirect.co.uk>
Sender: postmaster@extropy.org
Precedence: bulk
Reply-To: extropians@extropy.org
bostrom@mail.ndirect.co.uk ("Nicholas Bostrom") writes:
>4. In the absence of ethical motives, the benefits would outweigh the
>costs for a nanotech power that chose to eliminate the competition or
>prevent it from arising, provided it had the ability to do so.
Only under the unrealistic assumption that the outcome can be reliably
predicted in advance. If the attacker assumes some uncertainty about
whether the first strike will eliminate the other side(s), then that
attacker will realize that the first strike could leave powerfull
opponent(s) with increased motivation to wipe out the attacker.
Thus, the desirability of a first strike is sensitive to the uncertainties
about an opponent's hidden defences and his imagination about how to
construct new defences. Only omniscient powers should feel confident
about striking first. Remember Clauswitz's maxim that no battle plan
ever survived contact with the enemy.
--
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Peter McCluskey | caffeine O CH3
pcm@rahul.net | || |
pcm@quote.com | H3C C N
http://www.rahul.net/pcm | \ / \ / \
http://www.quote.com | N C C
| || ||
C C---N
// \ /
O N
|
CH3
--simple boundary--