> But now consider the case where
> instead of the urns you have two possible human races, and
> instead of balls you have individuals, ranked according to birth
> order.
Why are you assuming at the outset a 50/50 chance of doomsday?
You are saying that there are two human races, one where doomsday
occurs, and one where it does not. Then you go on to predict how many
people will exist in the one where it does not. Actually there are an
infinite number of human races where doomsday does not occur, each with
a different number of people -- an infinite number of urns with
differing numbers of balls.
Give me a billion urns (too little to begin with) each with a different
number of balls, and then tell me which urn has ten balls in it.
I might've missed your argument against this one in your paper.