over the next 50 years? what a coincidence ...
-x
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Date: Wed, 6 Sep 2000 9:50:24 PDT
From: AFP <C-afp@clari.net>
Subject: Athletic records close to the human limit, say scientists
PARIS, Sept 6 (AFP) - For the past century, athletes have
consistently shattered records, but they are now close to the very
limits of human potential, according to the bleak view of some
scientists.
Without help from illicit substances, the top athletes will make
only tiny, gradual improvements on records over the next 50 years
before beginning to hit the limits, the British weekly New Scientist
reports in Saturday's issue.
"The improvement is real. But it's starting to level off in most
events," Francois Peronnet a sports physiologist at the University
of Montreal, says.
Robert Schutz, a statistician at the University of British
Columbia, has made predictions based on past performances in seven
track and field events and projected them for the future.
By 2050, the marathon will be run in 2hr 2min 39sec (2:02:39),
just three minutes faster than the current best time of 2:05:42, he
says.
Schutz has also estimated the "asymptotic value" for each sport
- the point at which no further progress can be made.
He predicts the ultimate time in the 100 metres will be 9.51sec,
just under three-tenths of a second faster than the best today.
New records may continue to be set randomly, but overall the
trend is towards flattening performance curves, highlighting the
limits of the human body, the experts say.
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