GBurch1@aol.com writes:
> technologies that can be plugged into that grid. I know what the line is
> like on the business front, but what's the line really like on the technology
> front?
I haven't been following the field for the last few years, but I'd
imagine that the biggest problem still remains achieving the economy
of scale. Total cost of ownership is clearly better for thin-film
photovoltaics vs. mono- and polycrystalline. There is not much demand
for thin-film photovoltaics, and hence the prices for the large panels
(which could be integrated into roofs and facades) remain
high. Floatglass is not infinitely cheap, and it is not obvious that
thin-film PV can become as cheap as floatglass, even given big
volume. And polymers are notoriously prone to photolysis. Notice that
productive life times of installations are high, at high purchase
costs, which does not appeal to cash-drained/debt-ridden short-horizon
planning. Furthermore, the high-power semiconductors, necessary to
transform the PV power into wall current or feed it back into the grid
are also rare and hence expensive. In the U.S., lacking public
interest and green legislation, power providers are relunctant to
purchase power from residential roof installations, which results in
either overcapacities (of course one could run air-conditioning at
full speed during peak insolation times, or recharge EVs, provided one
has them), or necessity of energy storage, which is not
cheap. Batteries are not cheap, nor last long enough, electrolysis is
not widespread nor particularly efficient, and would require in-house
hydrogen storage and another new technology, fuel cells.
I'd rather use existing methane (natural gas) infrastructure to push
small fuel cells and methane reformers into houses, creating
integrated coupled electricity/heat production in residential units
and small groups of units (despite absence of collaboration in the
typical U.S. residential area, and general tendency to ignore
environmental aspects due to lack of ecological attitude and
artificially maintained low energy prices). Once this basic
infrastructure is there, one can utilize synergism, and push PV/water
electrolyzers/hydrogen storage.
Because we're talking about a whole network of new technologies, due
to multiple synergies best introduced simultaneously, none of them yet
arrived, this is a multiple chicken-and-egg problem. This requires
attitude (more than just being informed about possibilities), plus
loose money, plus time. All of this taken together, this does not seem
a short-term winner.
Just now alternative/renewable energy seem mostly a toy for the
financially secure and highly educated elite. Mainstream will follow
in time, once (provided) a critical mass has been achieved, resulting
in lower prices and synergies becoming exploitable.
The big unknown is the time scale of the advent of molecular
manufacturing of either brand, or microwaved power from a solar
satellite fleet made in situ from extraterrestrial material. Either
engineered plants or growing photosynthetic panels/houses, or
"wireless power too cheap to meter"* will of course greatly push
public** acceptance.
'gene
* Tesla wasn't all that wrong.
** given that there is still a public capable of accepting anything, of
course.
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