On Friday, August 25, 2000 2:22 PM Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu wrote:
> >What surprises me more is that life expectancy went up so high in the
first
> >half of the 20th century -- continuing a trend from the 19th -- in the
West,
> >but then seemed to level off in the upper 70s. Why didn't the trend
> >continue, especially since the estimate for maximum human lifespan is
about
> >125 years?
> >
> >Any ideas? explanations? corrections? speculations? rants?
>
> Age-specific mortality rates have fallen at a steady exponential rate for
> the entire last century. The classic source on this is
>
> Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality, by Ronald D. Lee,
> Lawrence R. Carter, J. American Statistical Association,
> 87(419):659-671, Sep., 1992.
>
> There was also a recent Nature article showing that this model applies
> also to a half dozen other countries.
>
> Given the initial age distribution, this steady exponential decline in
> age-specific rates produced a rapid decline in life expectancy in the
> early part of this century, and a slower decline in the later part. But
> the fundamental trend has remained amazingly steady.
I stand corrected. It still seems to me rather surprising that life
expectancy has risen more. (Of course, I'm probably biased here. I want my
increased life expectancy now!:)
Later!
Daniel Ust
http://uweb.superlink.net/neptune/
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