Robin Hanson wrote:
> I don't think nature is very well compiled as it is. Nature happened
> upon neurons
> as a computational mechanism and used it, even though most of
> what happens in a neuron is irrelevant to the computation.
I agree. Buy I expect we will have to unravel all of the mind-boggling,
inefficient complexity of the existing system before we understand its
behavior well enough to make a more efficient replacement that accurately
duplicates its behavior. Otherwise we'll end up with inaccurate simulations
that don't work.
> I'm not sure we know much about how nanotech changes the relative rates of
Not in detail, no. But that doesn't mean we can just dismiss the subject,
because it is obvious that there is a lot of potential for significan
tinteractions. Until we have a better picture of those interactions (which, of
course, means a lot of difficult research), it is going to be very hard to
assess the plausibility of any particular technology scenario.
> I don't think you understand the economic argument here. Even ignoring
> advantages of uploads, since it is cheap to create uploads, the supply
> increases quickly, which lowers the market wage. I did try to explain this
> stuff at http://hanson.gmu.edu/uploads.html
That URL doesn't seem to be working, but I beleive I remember the paper. As I
recall, you analyzed the effects of rapidly adding uploads to the labor pool
in considerable detail. However, your analysis focused exclusively on the
supply side of the equation - there is no consideration of the fact that the
uploads also contribute to agregate demand, which would tend to offset the
downward pressure on wages.
I also think that your 'fast, cheap copying' assumption is an artefact caused
by projecting a very advanced technology into a world that is otherwise
unchanged. If uploads actually existed today, copying one would be a
multi-million dollar operation involving weeks or months of work by a team of
highly-paid specialists. A future where uploads can be created and duplicated
like text files is a future where virtually everything important is software,
and therefore capable of equally rapid duplication. It is also a world right
on the verge of full-fledged mental modification technology, which takes us
beyond the realm of easy prediction.
> Nine years of AI research left me with definite impressions. And we already
> very cheap animal intelligence - real animals are cheap, and they come with
> too. But very few organizations manage to replace much human labor with
Considering how limited our ability to train animals is (compared, say, to our
ability to 'train' computers), that is hardly surprising. Robots are a rather
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