At 11:39 PM 7/11/00, you wrote:
>OTOH, since the writer of that called Krugman on oil prices, which had falled
>at the time of writing, I'll note that they've bounced back up to $25-30 a
>barrel.
>
>And if the Third World reaches for First World prosperity that will increase
>demans for basic resources. Now, in the long run ingenuity and innovation and
>discovery may make us all better off. But there is no guarantee that new
>supply will keep level with demand in the short run.
I believe Henderson would have won his bet at the end of last year (when
the bet would have been for). But that's not really the point. Henderson
was making a point about long term trends in prices. And he's absolutely
correct about that. Julian Simon made a longer-term (10 year) bet of this
kind with Paul Ehrlich. 10 years is still quite short term, so when Simon
won he offered to renew the bet with Ehrlich. Ehrlich declined.
No, there's no guarantee that new supplies will keep up with demand, but
it's been happening for centuries (with temporary shortages, often caused
by government intervention, or by lack of property right clarification and
enforcement). Since there's no guarantee, let's keep pushing technology in
the direct of faster, cheaper, smaller, and more virtual while applying
market principles to the environment to improve stewardship.
Max
Max More, Ph.D.
President, Extropy Institute. www.extropy.org
CEO, MoreLogic Solutions. www.maxmore.com
max@maxmore.com or more@extropy.org
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