Re: more national missile defense

From: Spike Jones (
Date: Sat Jul 01 2000 - 15:20:43 MDT

> Spike Jones wrote:> Anyone wish to speculate on the outcome? I predict
> a hit.
> S.J. Van Sickle wrote: I predict a miss.

I propose a little game, Steve. Whoever gets the right prediction
next Friday gets to repost the wrong-predictor's post. No intention
to embarrass, just a little light-hearted fun, kind of a cashless bet.
I have no special insights here, it might well be *my* incorrect
post that gets waved like a flag. {8^D Ya in? Anyone else?

> However, I do believe that if ICBM defense were permitted as many test
> failures as it took to perfect ICBMs to begin with, it would become a
> resounding success.

Thats the spirit. Why shouldnt it?

This line of reasoning does provide an insight however. We extropians
are focussed on the notion of a singularity of some sort, so we are a
like the religionists predicting THE END of the world, the long-
awaited apocalypse. We think that if these NMD systems are not
ready in the next 20 to 50 yrs, then the singularity will come along
and its all quite pointless, right? Well, think: what if...
the singularity *doesnt* happen in the next 30 to 50? What if some
as-yet-unanticipated anti-singularity technology is discovered and
launched? What if the rate of technology change settles at some positive
constant? Does that possibility change anyone's outlook on NMD? spike

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