Max M Rasmussen pointed us to:
>Article in NY Times
>http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/99/04/biztech/articles/14tech.html
... Yet today, even renowned skeptics on the subject of
technology's contribution to the economy, like Solow,
are having second thoughts. Productivity growth has
picked up, starting in 1996, capped by a surge in the
second half of last year, after eight years of economic
expansion. That has drawn attention because past
upward swings in productivity typically occurred early
in a recovery as economic activity rebounded. Once
companies increased hiring, it slowed again. ...
The question, posed by economists, is whether the
higher productivity growth, averaging about 2 percent in
the last three years, roughly double the pace from 1973
to 1995, is the long-awaited confirmation that the
nation's steadily rising investment in computers and
communications is finally paying off. The evidence is
starting to point in that direction.
This is the time to make your predictions, if you want to say "I told you so" later. Is this a blip or the start of a trend? What will be the average measured productivity growth in 2000 to 2005? In 2005 to 2010? 1%? 2%? 3%? 5% 10? I've said what I can say at http://hanson.berkeley.edu/longgrow.html .
Robin Hanson
hanson@econ.berkeley.edu http://hanson.berkeley.edu/ RWJF Health Policy Scholar FAX: 510-643-8614140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 510-643-1884 after 8/99: Assist. Prof. Economics, George Mason Univ.