> Spike wrote:
>
> >Tech prognostication is optimistic always in the short
> >term, laughably pessimistic always in the long term.
>
> Lee Corbin wrote: I think that Spike has nailed it :-)
No, I stole it from Arthur C. Clarke, who nailed it while I
I was still in diapers. {8-] See Profiles of the Future, 1962.
> I didn't realize that they were no longer reporting
> their results.
Note the difficulty in finding out how the humans are
doing in the Harvard Cup, in which the top U.S.
grandmasters plus some slashers from overseas
gather semiannually to play rapid format against the
commercial software. The percentages had reached
about 40% software until about 4 yrs ago,
when they stopped making the results public.
At that time they were using 200 MHz Pentium II
class processors. I haven't been able to find a
Harvard Cup or equivalent carbon vs silicon
competition using the >1 GHz class of processors.
Or perhaps I just can't find those results, or
they are for sale somewhere, don't know for sure.
It could be that the top GMs now realize that they
are giving away their trade secrets by making those
games public.
> But regardless, any grandmaster today
> can still reliably beat any commercial software. Lee
Monday's Chronicle quotes Vladimir Kramnik, the
young commie grandmaster that recently scalped
Garry Kasparov: "We are in a very interesting phase,
when the strength of the best GMs and that of the best
chess programs run by the best processors are about
equal. Nobody knows what will happen next."
I suspect I know what will happen next. spike
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