Adrian Tymes wrote:
>
> ...unless ve knows that contestants would know this, and thus take no
> opening as a cue to switch (.5 chance vs. 0 chance of prize). On
> ExtroQuiz, the host knows that the contestants have done all the
> second-guessing that matters, and thus know the host's algorithm (or
> lack thereof). Given that, how can the host act so as to minimize the
> guest's chances of winning if:
> a. the guest picks the prize door?
> b. the guest picks a non-prize door?
If the host assumes that I will outguess ver, vis best strategy is to
decide in advance that ve will do nothing regardless of which choice I
make. Any other strategy increases the amount of information I have
(we're assuming I've outguessed ver) and thereby increases my chance of
winning.
-- -- -- -- --
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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