Why Common Priors

From: Robin Hanson (rhanson@gmu.edu)
Date: Thu Mar 15 2001 - 08:55:19 MST

Those of you familiar with Bayesian decision theory may be interested in
my latest theoretical contribution to that subject.

http://hanson.gmu.edu/prior.pdf or .ps

                  Uncommon Priors Require Origin Disputes
                             by Robin Hanson

If two Bayesians believe that the causal process which produced their priors
was just as likely to have assigned them each the other Bayesian's prior,
those priors must be the same. Also, if two Bayesians agree on how much
some event changes the chances that they would have been created with the
same or different priors, those priors must assign the same probability to
that event. Thus Bayesians who agree enough about the causal origins of
their priors must have the same priors.

Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

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