Re: Bad Trend in War

From: Robin Hanson (
Date: Fri Jun 23 2000 - 19:35:02 MDT wrote:

> Robin writes:
> > The chart:
> > in
> > shows a bad long term trend. I sure hope it has changed lately.
> It is perhaps encouraging that at least 70% of the deaths occured in
> the first half of the century, despite the population being twice as
> high in the 2nd half on average. Perhaps that will turn out to have
> been the peak and now we are on a downslope towards historical levels.

I suspect war deaths in the last fifty years would have been substantially higherhad
it not been for MAD from nuclear weapons. Ex post we did well by them,
but I think we have to admit that ex ante we had a substantial possibility of a
nuclear war which would have killed very many people indeed. So we may
have just been lucky.

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