Re: Cryonics sources

From: Robin Hanson (
Date: Mon Jun 19 2000 - 13:35:53 MDT

Robert Bradbury wrote:
> > If cryonics suspension costs $100K, then using the above numbers
> > it wouldn't make sense unless there was a 2.5% chance of it making you
> > life forever, or a 5% chance of making you live thirty years.
>I understand this, but you are presuming some real "cost" associated
>with the $100K. If I'm paying for the suspension with insurance dollars
>then the cost is discounted depending on whether I'm frozen before
>I've vested my $100K.

This makes no sense to me. $100K is $100K, however you slice it.

>Or if you are a very wealthy individual (as two potential cryonics
>candidates I knew were), then the $100K is discounted even more

I showed in my example how to correct for wealth. If your income
were $500K/yr instead of $50K/yr, then the cutoff would drop to 0.25%.

>Now, if you have children, college educations, etc. to worry about, then
>I would agree that the $100K may not be insignificant and you would want
>higher confidence that cryonics would work. But since since many people
>(with exceptions on the list noted) involved in cryonics are not
>particularly religious, the funds invested in cryonics could otherwise
>be looked at as funds you would donate to your church.

Huh? If they are not religious, they are not donating to churches.

>Assuming being revived from cryonic suspension, means a nanotech era where
>diseases are solved and the accident rate allows you to live 2000-5000 years
>in a nanosanta world (when a year then is *more* valuable than a year now
>because you don't have to work to survive), what would the success chances
>have to be to justify the $100K?

A nanosanta world is *far* from guaranteed. And most people I know discount
cryonics revival years because they expect to be without familiar friends
and family.

Robin Hanson
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

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