At 06:23 PM 4/25/00 -0400, "John Clark" <email@example.com> wrote:
>1929 could certainly happen again, if fact it already has, on October 17, 1987
>the market declined by 28%, twice as bad as the worst day in 1929, and yet in
>retrospect we can say that 1987 was no big deal. The real question is if the
>unprecedented 1929 to 1933 bear market could ever happen again.
>Forget about head and shoulders tops, triple bottoms, or high PE ratios, a
>of that magnitude could only happen if we entered a catastrophic global
>and that could only happen if government regulators get too creative.
I was in London in 1987, designing and programming a computer
system for a broker dealing in stocks, bonds, commodities, futures,
options, currencies, and some other financial instruments. I watched
the stock trading screens go all red. My initial impression was: DISASTER.
Until someone indicated to me that in 1929 stocks were a large
percentage of the universe of financial instruments. But in 1987 stocks
were a much smaller portion of this universe, So, the 1987 crash had
little impact on the total economy.
For such reasons it's quite conceivable that a 1929-type stock market
crash (while other financial instruments held up) would have a limited
impact on the total economy in 2000.
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Jul 27 2000 - 14:09:49 MDT