Peter C. McCluskey [firstname.lastname@example.org] wrote:
>Oil futures and other futures contracts provide as good an estimate as any
>of the risks of major disruptions. The oil futures market is saying quite
>clearly that there is no problem.
The problem with trusting futures markets for predicting the future is that you implicitly assume they have all the neccesary information; if they don't, then their predictions are as useless as Clinton speeches.
>The only futures markets that indicate a
>problem are the short-term interest rate markets, which predict a 30 basis
>point rise in rates from September to December
Interesting CNN article on that one:
Apparently they're betting on large-scale bank runs too.
Also, I've read that there's at least one contract out there for more than a hundred tons of gold in December at around 30% more than current rates. That's a pretty big bet someone's making on gold price increases over the next few months. Don't have a URL handy.