> Michael S. Lorrey [email@example.com] wrote:
> >If it were like we were completely starting
> >from scratch and nobody made any money outside it, then I could see
> >your point,
> >but the money that is driving this at this point is supplied by working
> >people in the real world.
> You made some good points, and I'm no longer regarding Amazon as such a
> 'tulip bulb' bubble, but I disagree with this one. From all the economic
> statistics I've seen in the last few months the high value mostly seems to
> be coming from all the money the Fed is pushing into the economy to keep
> people happy so Clinton doesn't get kicked out of office.
> People aren't making this money by working, they're borrowing it; as soon
> as interest rates go up and people stop borrowing, the bubble will burst.
> But by then the Senate trial will be over and Clinton will be laughing.
I am a bit worried that this might turn into a speculative bubble, for sure. I don't see it as one yet. Compared to the bubble in Japan a decade ago, we are still at a small fraction of the level of speculation seen there.
Keep in mind that even by the most rosy estimates, there was only $30 billion in business done over the web last year. What is that? 0.3% of the entire economy? I'd be worried if we had this level of speculation with more than 5-10% of the economy on line, but not at this point... All of the internet stocks that are part of this 'bubble' are still less than $500-700 billion in total capitalization, I would guess off hand. Certainly less than one or two trillion. The entire capital market is what? $40-60 trillion now?
People think Bill Gates is so rich, but if you go as a percentage of the total economy, he still pales compared to the old robber barons.
I do wonder as to how much the Fed is trying to sustain the economy, like the did in the late 80s with steadily decreasing reserve percentages, etc. but the economic numbers keep coming out ahead of what the experts thought, both in the areas of employment, productivity, pay, etc. I'm starting to think that the capitalist economy is finally coming out of the feedback loop its been in for so long, mostly cause its got so damn many pistons in it that it acts like a turbine now....
Say what you want about the overseas money crisis. That wasn't capitalism, that was pure looting and fraud.