OK, I pulled the book off my shelf and figure 1.1 (p.8) shows the number of
scientific journals doubling every 15 years since ~1730. On p. 5, the author says:
"Now depending on what one measures and how, the crude size of science in manpower
or in publications tend to double within a period of 10 to 15 years. The 10-year
period emerges from those catchall measures that do not distinguish low-grade work
from high but adopt a basic minimal definition of science; the 15-year period
resultswhen one is more selective, counting only somed more stringent definition
of publishedscientific work and those who produce it. If this stringency is
increased so that onlyscientific work of very high quality is counted, then the
doubling period is drawn out so that it approaches about 20 years."
He then lists a bunch of assorted measures and their doubling times.
The book is: Derek J. de Solla Price, "Little Science, Big Science, and Beyond",
published in 1966.
Robin Hanson
hanson@econ.berkeley.edu http://hanson.berkeley.edu/
RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-8614