From: steve (steve365@btinternet.com)
Date: Tue Feb 05 2002 - 10:29:10 MST
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mike Lorrey" <mlorrey@datamann.com>
To: <extropians@extropy.org>
Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 2:49 AM
Subject: Re: CLIMATE: Cooling, not warming...
> Variations in the Milankovich cycles can, in fact, also explain the
> cooling and warming trend that has stretched from the middle ages to the
> present. The peak of the 'little ice age' was around 1300 or so, when
> Norse colonies in Greenland were wiped out, and things have warmed a bit
> since then, not just in the past century, entirely in keeping with
> Milankovitch's predictions.
One slight correction, the worst period for the "little ice age" is the mid
to late 17th century. (That's why we're constantly being told that recent
years are the hottest "since records began" because official climatological
records were first kept then, at the peak of a cold period). The cooling
starts in the late thirteenth and gets bad after 1300. Otherwise, exactly
right. The world was as warm as it is now in the 12th/11th centuries when,
as we all know, the streets of Paris were choked with motor vehicles and
Constantinople had to bring in a clean air law. The evidence for historical
periods goes back further than this and the 4th/5th centuries were probably
warmer than today. All this suggests that while the earth may be warming up
we should be very sceptical of arguments that it's down to human activity.
In any event, it's not clear to me the current warming trend is a "bad
thing". Bad news if you're a Dutchman or live in Central America, great news
if you're a Canadian. Steve Davies
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