From: Dan Clemmensen (dgc@cox.rr.com)
Date: Fri Jan 25 2002 - 20:04:10 MST
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
> "Smigrodzki, Rafal" wrote:
>
>>If the Singularity
>>comes as predicted in 2006, this is all the risk that matters.
>>
>
> The only person I know of who predicts such is Dan Clemmensen. Is this
> the prediction you are referring to?
>
> -- -- -- -- --
> Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/
> Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
>
>
Yes, you should be very careful with that prediction. it was arbitrary:
In 1996 I predicted that the singularity would happen within ten years.
I still believe that I was correct, and as far as I can tell, everybody
else who has made a prediction and subsequently changed it has opted for
an earlier date, so the locus of predictions is moving closer to my date.
However, if you accept the concept that the singularity is driven by
exponential change, then you must realize that the actual data will not
become obvious to most people until the singularity is nearly upon us.
If you prefer the "phase change" model, then the situation is even
worse. In this model, we have built a substrate that provides the
resources needed to create an SI, needing only some single breakthrough
to bring it into existence. With this model, the SI can be brought into
existence without warning by an individual or a small group .As the
substrate improves, The size of the needed breakthrough decreases.
I feel that the substrate is already very rich and is rapidly getting
richer, as measured in available computing capacity.
Conclusion: 2006 is a guess, but it is not completely ridiculous.
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