From: Geraint Rees (g.rees@fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk)
Date: Mon Jan 07 2002 - 11:27:07 MST
On 1/7/02 4:00 PM, "John Clark" <jonkc@worldnet.att.net> wrote:
> How about a simple virus mutation? Something as deadly as Ebola
> and as contagious as the common cold might spread so fast that
> scientists would have no time to study it. Compared with other
> mammals there is remarkably little genetic variation in the Human
> Race so it is at least conceivable that one very bad bug could
> cause an extinction, sort of like a Dutch Elm Disease for people.
> I'm not expecting it to happen but it's something to think about.
How about a repeat of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed 20-50
million worldwide, mostly young adults. More Americans were killed than in
all the wars of the 20th century.
http://www.cdc.gov/od/nvpo/pandemics/
The problem here, as the CDC point out, is that vaccine production (which is
now available) typically takes 6 months, more than the likely warning of a
pandemic.
On the optimistic side, although a pandemic on this scale would be bad it's
not likely to be an extinction event.
Best wishes,
Geraint
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